Bitcoin’s price recovery from the Aug. 29 low of $9,320 is backed by an uptick in the dominance rate to 30-month highs.
Weak trading volumes, however, indicate the recovery could be short-lived and a fall back to $9,750 could be in the offing in the next day or two. Weekly chart indicators continue to call a bearish move.
A high-volume UTC close above the bearish lower high of $10,956 (Aug. 20 high) is needed to revive the short-term bullish outlook.
A weekly close (Sunday, UTC) above $12,000 is needed for full bull revival.
Bitcoin is on track to test $9,000, having dived out of a narrowing price range earlier this week. The cryptocurrency is likely to end August on a negative note, having suffered losses in July and January.
BTC may suffer a deeper price drop over the next few months, possibly to the 200-day moving average near $7,400, if prices print a UTC close below $9,049 on Saturday, confirming a bearish reversal on the monthly chart.
Bitcoin now stands alone in the top 10 cryptocurrencies by market value at CoinMarketCap, with the rest having fallen below a key long-term moving average.
The top 10 cryptocurrencies by market value, ether (ETH), XRP, bitcoin cash (BCH), litecoin (LTC), binance coin (BNB), EOS, bitcoin SV (BSV) and stellar (XLM), have now all closed firmly beneath their 200-period moving average (MA) on the daily chart.
The event marks a period of greater selling momentum, confirming the majority of the bearish mood currently prevailing among investors.
Bitcoin risks falling to $9,000 in the next 24 hours, having dived out of a narrowing price range on Wednesday. A violation there would expose the next support lined up at $8,500.
The breakdown looks legitimate as it is backed by a surge in selling volumes. The daily chart indicators are also reporting bearish conditions.
A weekly close (Sunday, UTC) below $9,533 would confirm a double top breakdown on the weekly chart.
The bearish case would be invalidated above Wednesday’s high of $10,280, although that looks unlikely.
Bitcoin’s recent market movements have thrown into contention consensus about its short-term price direction, with traders asking openly if demand is strong enough to fend off another bear market.
Such a question has emerged in the wake of the world’s largest cryptocurrency’s inability to set new highs above those seen in June and July, when optimism about a Facebook cryptocurrency launch pushed the price of bitcoin to $13,880 and $13,200 on June 26 and July 10, respectively.
Bitcoin’s price slid more than $600 in 30 minutes, falling back below $10,000 on Wednesday.
Beginning at 17:50 UTC and lasting until 18:20 UTC, BTC witnessed a large pullback from $10,200 to $9,600, followed by a small bounce near $9,740, providing temporary support.
Bitcoin opened the day at just under $10,200.
Bitcoin’s interaction with the 100-period moving average on the daily and weekly charts have provided strong regions of support in the past and may do so again.
Exhaustion caused by low levels of total daily volume and market activity raises doubts about the direction for the mid-term.
Should the bulls lose the on-going stalemate in buying and selling pressure, bitcoin risks falling to weekly supports located near $7,560 in the coming weeks.
Bitcoin’s weekly moving average convergence divergence histogram has turned bearish for the first time in seven months. Even so, sellers need to observe caution as that indicator had trapped bears on the wrong side of the market during the 2015-2017 bull run.
A bull revival, however, would be confirmed if and when prices find sustained acceptance, preferably a weekly close (Sunday, UTC), above $12,000.
Short duration charts continue to call a move lower to $9,500.
Bitcoin’s recovery from $9,755 to $10,255 seen in the last 24 hours lacks volume support and could be short-lived.
Supporting the case for a drop back to $9,755 are the rising-wedge breakdown on the hourly chart and a bearish candlestick pattern on the 3-day chart.
Wednesday’s rising-wedge breakdown on the 4-hour chart is still valid and favors a drop to $9,467 (Aug. 15 low).
Bearish pressures would weaken if prices print a UTC close above the bearish lower high of $10,956.
Bitcoin’s defense of the 100-day moving average and a bullish divergence of an hourly chart indicator suggest scope for a minor price bounce to $10,300
Bitcoin will remain in the hunt for a drop to $9,467 (Aug. 13 low), as long as the rising wedge breakdown seen on the 4-hour chart remains valid.
A UTC close above $10,956 would shift risk in favor of a rally to $11,850-$12,000. A weekly close above $12,000 is needed to confirm bullish revival.
Bitcoin (BTC) sellers are again struggling to force a sustained break below a widely-followed support level, but the outlook would turn bullish only above $10,956.
Bitcoin quickly fell from $10,842 to $10,082 earlier today, confirming a rising wedge breakdown on the hourly chart. The bearish reversal pattern has opened the doors for a retest of $9,467 (Aug. 15 low).
On the way lower, prices may find support at the 100-day moving average, currently at $9,882. The average served as strong support earlier this month.
The bearish case would be invalidated if prices rise above $11,000 with high volumes in the next 24 hours.
Bitcoin has created a rising wedge pattern on the 4-hour chart. A wedge breakdown, if confirmed, could yield a drop to levels below $10,000.
Bitcoin’s recent recovery from $9,467 lacked high-volume support, so a rising wedge breakdown looks likely. The weekly chart is also flashing bearish signals.
A high-volume move above $11,000 would invalidate the bearish case and allow a rise to $11,500. A weekly close (Sunday, UTC) above $12,000 is needed for a full bullish revival.
Bitcoin has risen by $1,000 since Friday’s announcement by Bakkt exchange that it will be launching physically-settled bitcoin futures on Sept. 23. The price rise has neutralized the bearish setup on the intraday charts seen last week.
The gains could be extended further to $11,000, as the hourly chart is reporting a bullish continuation pattern.
Bitcoin’s repeated defense of the 100-day moving average signals seller exhaustion, but a break above $10,445 – the high of Thursday’s hammer candle – is needed to confirm a bull revival.
A high-volume move above $10,445 would open the doors to re-test of $11,120.
BTC may have a tough time scaling $10,445, as the daily chart indicators are biased bearish.
The risk of a drop to $9,049 (July 17 low) remains as long as prices are held below that level.
Bitcoin has dipped beneath the 100-day moving average, potentially opening the doors to support near $8,500 if the bulls can’t keep prices above the MA.
Total weekly volume for the bears is lower than expected, offering a small hope for a bullish rebound.
Price would need a firm close above the 100-day MA in hopes of cementing a higher low relative to July 28’s dip low.
The cryptocurrency markets were flashing red again on Thursday after bitcoin (BTC), the world’s largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, fell by more than $900 in 24 hours.
On August 14, beginning at 12:00 UTC, BTC began to fall sharply from $10,862 to as low as $9,888 before traders bought the price back up above $10,000.
It marks the worst single-day loss since July 16, approximately 30 days ago.
However, BTC’s price has successfully defended a sub $10,000 close on yesterday’s trading period and is currently changing hands at $10,084.
Bitcoin appears on track to test the psychological support of $10,000, as the daily chart moving averages and other key indicators have turned bearish.
A high-volume price breakdown seen on the hourly chart also favors a drop to $10,000.
However, the hourly chart indicators are reporting a bullish divergence. So, a price bounce to $10,700 could precede a drop to $10,000.
The outlook as per the daily chart would turn bullish if prices print a UTC close above $12,000.
Bitcoin charted an “inside bar” pattern last month, making $13,200 the level to beat for the bulls.
A convincing move above $13,200 would imply a resumption of the rally from lows near $4,050 seen in April.
A break below $9,049 (July’s low) would confirm a bearish inside bar reversal on the monthly chart.
The hourly chart indicates prices could drop below $11,000 in the next 24 hours or so.
The bearish case would weaken if lower-highs pattern on the hourly chart is invalidated with a move above $11,431.
Bitcoin’s short duration charts indicate the bears are in control and prices could drop below $11,000 in the next 24 hours.
A strong bounce from the 5- and 10-week moving averages at $10,804 and $10,625, respectively, could fuel a rise back to $12,000.
A high-volume weekly close (Sunday, UTC) or a back-to-back daily close above $12,000 is needed to revive the bullish outlook.
Bitcoin has charted a narrowing price range over the last three days, neutralizing the immediate bullish setup.
A bull revival needs a UTC close above Wednesday’s high of $12,145, according to a double inside bar pattern seen on the daily chart.
The outlook would turn bearish if prices print a UTC close below Wednesday’s low of $11,388.
The odds of a bearish UTC close would rise if BTC breaks lower from the contracting triangle seen on the intraday charts.
Bitcoin is outperforming gold amid heightened uncertainty in the global markets.
The world’s most valuable cryptocurrency is currently trading at $11,700, representing 16 percent gains on a month-to-date basis. Meanwhile, gold, the traditional safe-haven asset, has added 6 percent this month.
The precious metal picked up a bid at $1,400 on Aug. 1 as the U.S. President Trump’s decision to escalate trade tensions with China triggered a flight to safety. The S&P 500, a global benchmark for riskier assets, fell 0.
Bitcoin’s bull run from April lows near $4,100 seems to have stalled, with buyers repeatedly failing to keep gains above $12,000 in the last six weeks.
A high-volume weekly close (Sunday, UTC) above $12,000 is needed to revive the bull market.
A bullish weekly close may remain elusive if the cryptocurrency finds acceptance below $11,200 in the next day or two. That could pave way for a drop to $10,500.
The price of bitcoin’s recent rise above $12,000 was stopped short a few hours into its rally, with prices sliding by more than $1,000 over the course of the U.S. trading session that followed.
Beginning 10:15 UTC and lasting until 22:15 UTC, BTC witnessed a large pullback, followed by a small bounce near $11,200, providing temporary support. Still, bitcoin’s local daily high near $12,325 was the highest price point since July 10.
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